分析:交易平台净流入与ETF流出造成3.4万枚BTC潜在抛压,比特币若冲击8万美元仍需现货买盘支撑

BlockBeats 消息,5 月 26 日,加密分析师 Axel Adler Jr. 表示,尽管 BTC 近期重新站上 77,000 美元,但交易平台净流入与现货 ETF 持续流出,仍对市场形成局部抛压。数据显示,过去一周 BTC 交易所净流入约 18,000 枚 BTC,意味着更多 BTC 被转入交易平台准备卖出。同时,美国现货比特币 ETF 同期净流出约 16,000 枚 BTC。两项数据合计形成约 34,000 枚 BTC 的潜在卖压。
Glassnode 数据还显示,现货 BTC ETF 日交易量已降至 200 亿美元以下,而 2025 年底一度超过 500 亿美元,反映传统金融渠道的投机需求正在降温。不过,市场情绪近期因美伊和平协议预期改善而回暖。BTC 在跌破 75,000 美元后迅速反弹至 77,800 美元附近。
衍生品数据显示,此轮上涨主要由空头回补推动。BTC 总未平仓合约(OI)从约 26.8 万枚 BTC 降至 25 万枚 BTC 后略有回升,资金费率也同步降温,意味着杠杆多头拥挤度下降。分析认为,若 BTC 想进一步冲击 80,000 美元,仍需现货需求与未平仓合约同步增长。
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