The crypto world never lacks Flags, nor does it lack face-slapping moments. Saylor's "never sell coins" statement is still fresh in memory, yet 32 BTC have quietly been sold. I once swore: never to use leverage. But on the day of the "1011 incident" last year, seeing gold everywhere, I couldn't resist. I used my last 2,000 USDT to open a 5x long position on $BTC, thinking bottom-fishing would surely win. But overnight, Bitcoin plunged thousands of points again, and my account instantly went to zero. That morning, staring at the screen with chills all over, I realized Flags aren't meant to be broken, but to show you how greedy you really are. Now I still avoid leverage, but no longer dare to say "never." Even Saylor adjusts his positions slightly, so why should we demand absolute correctness? To those who come after: You can set Flags, but please do so with spare money. Breaking a Flag is not shameful; what's shameful is leaving no way out. The market is always changing, and only by always reserving chips to turn things around can we truly uphold the "never" we should stick to.

The market hasn't been good recently, so I calmed down and reread Teacher Li Xiaolai's book "Treat Time as a Friend," and I feel it fits virtual investing perfectly. The book says time can't be managed; the only thing you can truly control is yourself. Thinking about it, it's true—staying up late watching the market, wanting to jump in as soon as it rises, panicking and cutting losses when it falls. On the surface, it seems like there's not enough time, but actually, it's all about not being able to control your own actions. There's also the phrase "there's no shortcut; everything depends on accumulation," which is so fitting for investing—you always want to go all in and double up, but you often end up getting repeatedly harvested. The ones who really make money are those who control their impulses, have patience, and slowly roll the snowball. Reading the whole book, it's less about time management and more like a lesson in mindset. If you also chase highs and lows in virtual trading and lose more the more you trade, I recommend flipping through this book; it might be more effective than looking at a hundred K-line analyses.

"4.2% CPI Released, Crypto Market Reassesses Walsh" The US May CPI year-on-year is 4.2%, hitting a nearly three-year high, with energy contributing over 60% of the increase. However, the core CPI month-on-month is only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in the monthly inflation pace. The data shows "hot on the surface, mild inside": overall inflation is driven up by energy, while core pressure eases. The market priced in the worst-case scenario three days in advance. Wall Street believes May marks the peak of this inflation cycle, with gasoline prices having peaked on May 20. After the data release, bond and dollar markets surged then retreated. The real variable is Walsh. Goldman Sachs has abandoned its 2026 rate cut forecast, pushing rate cuts to 2027 and raising the probability of a rate hike to 20%. Interest rate futures show the rate cut timing shifted to Q1 2027. Bitcoin and gold simultaneously broke key support levels, weakening the "digital gold" narrative. The market is pricing assets under the logic of "zero-yield assets being revalued in a high-interest environment." Ahead of the FOMC meeting, expect more observation and less action. May CPI is just the prelude; the June dot plot is the key. The inflation turning point needs another two to three months of observation. #美国五月CPI录得4.2%：核心通胀放缓

"Storing 7 private keys on one laptop, is multisig still trustworthy?" Root cause of the Humanity Protocol attack: An employee's personal computer was compromised, and the attacker found 7 private keys in backup files, 6 of which were multisig signing keys. The hacker upgraded the bridge contract, transferred 140 million H tokens, and gained unlimited minting rights on the BNB chain. The founder admitted: "Some keys were inappropriately backed up on the same device." The essence of multisig is to distribute 7 keys to 7 people—if all 7 keys are plugged into the same lock, it’s essentially just one lock. A proper institutional multisig requires at least: hardware wallets storing keys offline, signing devices not networked with each other, and multiple independent confirmations for each transfer. Multisig still has value, but it’s not a cure-all. Humanity treated multisig as an excuse to "buy insurance and not close the windows." $31 million evaporated—not the fault of multisig, but the executors. Before investing, ask where those multisig keys are actually stored. #Humanity攻击根因确认：员工电脑被入侵 $H

"Issuing crash warnings while simultaneously opening tactical short positions: the end of the narrative is the position" ZachXBT accuses Hayes of successively clearing positions after repeatedly hyping HYPE, NEAR, ZEC, and WLD within 15 days, questioning how much "exit liquidity" his followers have provided. Hayes responds: the liquidation is based on macro judgments—AI IPOs draining capital, rising oil prices, and political risks ahead of the midterm elections. He also reveals having established tactical Bitcoin short positions as a hedge. The issue is the timeline: just before liquidating HYPE on June 4, he called for "$150 by year-end"; on June 6, after praising WLD's "strong performance," he immediately cleared his position. Talking bullish but selling on the books. Strictly speaking, this is not illegal, but his use of influence to create exit liquidity patterns has triggered ethical controversies. The narrative itself has become a derivative, with opinions replacing real liquidity. For ordinary investors: the real signal is not what he says but when on-chain wallets move. After he exits, are you still standing by to explain for him? #Hayes清仓验证，预言正在兑现？ $ZEC $WLD $HYPE

"Rushing headlong while crashing: How should the allocation be adjusted?" SpaceX IPO oversubscribed nearly 4 times, with subscription demand reaching $250 billion. On the same day, optical modules collectively crashed: AAOI fell 17%, Coherent dropped over 11%, Marvell declined more than 7%. The trigger was a SemiAnalysis report stating CPO mass production is delayed until 2028. This split validates one fact: the pricing power of AI assets lies in independent institutions' judgment of the "technology expectation gap," rather than short-term earnings reports. Facing this split market, the adjustment approach for held AI stocks and crypto assets is as follows: Among AI concept stocks, scarce supply like SpaceX is suitable for a core position; for optical modules and others sensitive to technical routes, control position size and gradually reduce exposure using rebounds. Crypto assets require even more caution regarding spillover effects. During major pullbacks in US stocks, highly leveraged crypto assets are hit first. At this stage, wait for certainty rather than actively speculating on direction. #SPCX-IPO超募4倍，光模块同夜崩盘 $SPCX $BTC

"The Middle East is burning, but gold is falling? The anomaly behind it is the interest rate hike expectations overshadowing everything" A new round of clashes between the US and Iran, yet spot gold has fallen below $4200, dropping more than 1.5% intraday, with a cumulative decline of over 26% from this year's high, entering a technical bear market. The key to this anomaly is not the Middle East, but the interest rate hike expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000, and the probability of a rate hike in December surged to 74.2%. Goldman Sachs revised its stance to "no rate cuts until 2026." Gold pays no interest, so holding costs soar in a high-interest environment. Trump characterized the strike as "limited in scale," and the market believes the conflict is not yet out of control. The macroeconomic front is the main battlefield; the hawkish stance of the Fed's Waller makes the certainty of rate hikes outweigh geopolitical risks. High oil prices are forcing inflation, and oil-importing countries are compelled to sell gold to obtain dollar liquidity. Gold has shifted from a "safe-haven asset" to a "liquidity tool." This signal is a warning for crypto: if gold cannot withstand rate hikes, crypto faces even greater revaluation pressure. Crypto's pricing power lies in liquidity, but TGA drain, ETF outflows, and AI IPO capital absorption are attacking from three fronts. No need to rush to guess the geopolitical situation; look more at the Fed's dot plot—that is the common anchor for pricing all assets. #美以伊再交火引发风险资产剧烈波动

$KAT surged 37% within 24 hours, backed by major players. DCG directly endorsed it, and a certain fund CEO is continuously accumulating, showing strong institutional backing. Product-wise, there are moves too: AI integrated into mining, KAST Pay enabling payments, expanding application scenarios. MACD golden cross, volume piled up to $5 million, short-term sentiment exploded. But RSI burned up to 88, the heat is high, short-term momentum is nearing its peak. Some still question technical details, the forced trading feature is doubtful, which might undermine developer confidence. 73% of the supply is locked, so no unlocking pressure for now, but it remains a suspended inventory in the long term. With big players driving demand and product rollout, take a breather short-term, digest the profit-taking, then wait for the next wave. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

"TGA is withdrawing 1 trillion, and the faucet of liquidity in the crypto market is about to be tightened" Before the end of June, TGA will reach $900 billion, and by the end of July, it will hit 1 trillion. The U.S. Treasury is set to withdraw a massive amount of funds from the market. In 2022, RRP had $2.5 trillion as a buffer, but now less than $100 billion remains. Without this buffer, this bond issuance directly drains bank reserves, essentially emptying the crypto market’s reserves. Delphi Digital estimates the potential liquidity shock at about $250 billion. Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 is close to 0.94; when M2 contracts, BTC is bound to fall. Last October, withdrawing 200 billion over 20 days caused $BTC to drop from 70,000 to 60,000, with ETFs pulling out $3.45 billion over 11 consecutive days. This time, the scale is larger and the buffer thinner. BTC spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling about $4.4 billion, marking the longest outflow streak since ETFs launched. With non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, high oil prices, AI mega IPO cash drain, and TGA tightening, liquidity is under siege from all sides. New chairman Walsh is known for strict discipline; expecting him to proactively inject liquidity to offset withdrawals? Unlikely. If the Treasury withdraws quickly and the Fed doesn’t inject liquidity, the gap will be filled by BTC. Life won’t be easy until TGA peaks by the end of July. #美国TGA扩张：加密市场流动性承压

"An employee's computer was hacked, losing 31 million; who is watching the project's keys?" Humanity Protocol attack root cause confirmed: An employee's personal computer was compromised, and the attacker found 7 private keys in their backup files, 6 of which were multisig signing keys. The hacker directly upgraded the bridge contract, clearing 140 million $H from Ethereum, and gained unlimited minting rights on BNB Chain. After the incident, the founder admitted that "some keys were inappropriately backed up on the same device." Even more outrageous, the $H token contract on BSC has not yet been restored under control, and the attacker can still mint at any time. A protocol that does "identity verification" can't even secure its own funds. As an investor, you should proactively check three points when choosing a project: Are funds controlled by independent multisig? Are signers not on the same device? Has the private key distribution undergone third-party audits? Any of the following warning signs should be avoided: private keys stored on employee personal devices; permissions concentrated in one person's hands; team has a history of bankruptcy or litigation. The 31 million collapse is not just a crash in token price but a loss of trust in the entire sector. Next time you invest in a project, first ask who is watching the keys. #Humanity攻击根因确认：员工电脑被入侵 $H

"Hayes' Triple Pressure Theory: Logically Sound but Missed the Entry" On June 9, Arthur Hayes released "Reality Test," proposing three pressures: rising oil prices → increased AI computing costs; three major AI mega IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) draining funds; Trump possibly shifting to anti-AI regulation before the midterm elections. Conclusion: The AI bubble will burst, dragging down crypto. But the issue is: around June 4-6, he had already liquidated HYPE, NEAR, ZEC, WLD positions, with HYPE dropping from $75 to $57. The article was published after the liquidation. This is not a prophecy, but a narrative to justify his exit. The variables in the triple pressure are indeed being validated: BTC ETF net outflows have exceeded $4.4 billion over several days, SpaceX oversubscribed by about 4 times, and CITIC Securities warns of upward oil price risks. The variables are real, but if one truly believed, they should have liquidated above $70 before him. Its reference value lies in risk control checklists, not trading signals. When the post-event narrative is written on the wall, the first batch of profit-takers have long adjusted their positions. #Hayes清仓验证，预言正在兑现？ $SPCX $ANTHROPIC $OPENAI

"Dancing on thin ice before the CPI data" Tonight the May CPI will be released. $BTC just rebounded from 61,000 to 63,000, but the fear and greed index is only 8, at a historic low. The market expects the overall CPI year-on-year to rise to 4.2%, with core CPI slightly up to 2.9%. The probability of a rate hike by the end of the year has exceeded 70%. My strategy: reduce positions and wait, no action. Reason one: SpaceX oversubscribed by 4 times, AI IPO absorbing liquidity, ETFs have had net outflows exceeding $4.4 billion for several consecutive days, the rebound lacks support. Reason two: If CPI is higher than 4.2%, BTC will test 60,000; if lower than expected, a short-term rebound but tightening direction remains unchanged. The odds of winning by betting on single-day data are low. Reason three: The real test is the FOMC dot plot a week later. Rather than betting on the direction tonight, better to wait for the Fed to reveal its cards. Tonight's CPI is just the appetizer; save your bullets and wait for the boots to drop. #五月CPI即将揭晓，加息预期重燃