粤大魔

Fries! Fries! | Daily update market analysis OKX node | ❌：@YUEDAMO

22Following

2.8Kfollowers

Feed

2.21 $ETH Evening Market This silly dog BTC is staggering around like it's drunk boxing, swaying all over without any proper form, purely doing whatever it wants. It tried to poke up to that Fibonacci 1:1 extension target, but the big resistance above slapped it back hard. Can't break through, so it pulls back. But the pullback isn't behaving either—it directly stabbed down, faking a break below Fibonacci 38.2, and now it's just playing dead there. I'm watching to see if it can climb back above 38.2; if it can't, it will retest the previous low at 2076. If that low gets tested again, it might not hold. If it breaks, the new low at 2055 will be as fragile as paper, breaking easily. What's the most annoying thing on the chart right now? The chart literally drew a small M top, with the neckline around 2102-2105, which is BTC's Adam's apple. As long as it doesn't break below this range, and with support at 2102 below to grind against, it can still push up a bit; but if it breaks this range with volume, the M top is confirmed, and the full retracement scenario will come, waterfall style. Damn, just when I saw some hope for a rebound, it gets snuffed out like this? But honestly, all this technical analysis is just surface level. The root lies in the exchange rate. BTC's exchange rate is its heart. Look at the exchange rate—it looks dead. After breaking that descending trendline, it hasn't had a decent breath or rebound, just rolling down relentlessly without looking back. The 0.029 support vanished in no time, now hovering around 0.027. 0.025, brother, tattoo this number on your forehead—this is the last pair of shorts for the exchange rate. If it breaks this level, the whole area below is a vacuum zone where it can fall however it wants. The heart is already under-supplied with blood; do you still expect BTC to toughen up? Without the exchange rate turning up, all BTC rebounds are just fake moves, just playing rogue. If you watch it any longer, I lose. So, the plan is crystal clear, don't get emotional: Tonight, keep a close eye on the 2102-2122 zone—this is BTC's emergency room door. · If it holds above 2122 with volume, go long on the right side, target 2158-2195, take a sip of soup and leave. · If it breaks below 2105 with volume, go short on the right side, target 2056-2018, don't hesitate. · If it just oscillates within this $10 range, chop off your hands and watch the show. This range stabbing back and forth is a meat grinder, killing both bulls and bears, leaving nothing. No signals yet, the money is yours, don't write scripts for the market makers. Let the drunk boxing play out, we'll sit on the sidelines eating sunflower seeds, wait until it gets tired and falls, then kick it again. $ETH $BTC $HYPE

5.21 $BTC Evening Market Update The market right now can be summed up in two words: conflicted. Stuck grinding back and forth between 77379 and 78324, this kind of market really messes with your mindset—once you get emotional, you get slapped from both sides. The 77379 level below has been tested more than once, temporarily acting as support. But I have to be honest with you, support is like a person—after being pushed around too much, it weakens; it doesn’t get stronger the more you step on it. If the price drops to 77379 again, don’t reflexively go long. Catching a bounce once might feel good, but there will be a last time that breaks through hard—don’t cry then. On the upside, 78324 has been hit three times but stubbornly won’t break through, even producing an ugly shooting star candle, indicating the big players are heavily suppressing the price there. BTC alone can’t push through this resistance easily. Without some positive news to boost it, it’s likely to keep oscillating. The only reason I think the market isn’t completely dead is that each rebound’s high is slightly higher than the last. Don’t underestimate this small increase; a higher high means the bulls still have some breath left. As long as the next rebound can reach a new high, 78324 has a chance. Conversely, if the rebound highs keep getting lower, no need for me to say more—strap in and prepare to run. On pullbacks, don’t let the 77379 area be effectively broken (a quick wick below that quickly recovered is acceptable), then slowly consolidate the bottom here. Once volume picks up and 78324 is broken, we can look up to around 79438. That’s the kind of move you can trust. If 77379 can’t hold and breaks down decisively, don’t get your hopes up; the price will likely head down to 76270. · Long entry: With volume, hold above 78015, then chase on the right side, targeting 79227 - 80272. If it can’t break through, just wait patiently and don’t be impulsive. · Short entry: With volume, break below 77333, fail to rebound, then chase shorts targeting 76466 - 75270. · In the range: Between 77379 - 78324, just one word: wait. In a choppy market, not losing is winning—move less. A quick look at the 4-hour macro: price is now hovering above the midline at 77263, which is okay, but it hasn’t climbed above the Fibonacci 38.2% level yet, so it’s not a confirmed strength. Only when it climbs above that can we talk about reaching 50% and 61.8% zones. A full reversal requires holding above 78.6%, which is still far off—don’t get ahead of yourself, take it step by step. Summary: Tonight, focus on whether the bottom consolidates firmly and takes off, or if the support gets broken and fails. We don’t guess—wait for the right-side signal. If it comes, enter; if not, watch. Always set your stop loss and don’t hold losing positions. Just this one sentence—take it to heart. $BTC $ETH $SOL

How do crypto people celebrate Pizza Day? After reading this article, you’ll thank yourself this time next year. #加密人怎么过披萨节 On May 22, 2010, programmer Laszlo bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTC. Today, that amount is worth 600 million USD. The whole world laughs at him for being foolish, but I want to say, we have no right to laugh. Without that transaction, BTC might still be just a string of unused code. He used two pizzas to light up the crypto world. So, Pizza Day isn’t for just watching the show; it’s for "overcoming challenges" and "learning from others." This Pizza Day, smart people are doing these 3 things; missing even one means you lose out. 1. Dig up your address and slap yourself Don’t just scroll memes, open your wallet and check what you were doing last Pizza Day. 🔹 What coins did you buy back then? 🔹 If you held on, how many pizzas could you trade for now? 🔹 For those who sold at a loss, did you regret it badly? [Remember this feeling]. This is the biggest meaning of Pizza Day: calibrate your hands with pain. You’ll find most losses aren’t from choosing wrong, but from not holding on. Back then, you were just one "forgot password" away from getting rich. 2. Today, you must complete a "foolish move" While everyone else is trying to time the market, you do the opposite. The best thing to do on Pizza Day is dollar-cost averaging and HODLing. Open your exchange and blindly buy $100 worth of $BTC or $OKB. Not for anything else, but so next year today, you can flex in the comments: "Hey, the coins I bought last Pizza Day just doubled." Don’t underestimate this move. Laszlo traded 10,000 BTC for pizzas not because he was dumb, but because BTC had no price anchor then. Today, buying $100 worth of coins is forging a price anchor for your future self. This time, you’re in the stratosphere. 3. Turn Pizza Day into your "personal de-risking anniversary" If you’re now holding a bunch of altcoins and can’t sleep from anxiety, listen to me: take advantage of the Pizza Day hype to quietly swap junk coins for BTC. 🍕 Those two pizzas were eaten back then, but BTC remains. 🍕 Will those altcoins you chase now still be around next Pizza Day? [Comment chain dare]: "On Pizza Day 2025, I cleared out ____ and switched to BTC, see you next year." This feels better than eating ten pizzas. This is the good karma you’re saving for yourself. You’re not just watching history; you’re in history. The next "record-breaking pizza" might be born from an action you take today. If you find this reminder useful, please like and save it—don’t let ignorance steal your coins. Homework in the comments: What did you HODL today? Or what was the most expensive meal you ever bought with which coin? $BTC $OKB $ETH @OKX中文

5.21 $BTC $ETH Midday Market Update BTC's manipulators are really nasty. Last night, they blatantly smashed through 77379. With that momentum, who wouldn't expect a waterfall drop? But what happened? As soon as you chased the short, they reversed and pulled it back, closing with a hammer candlestick. This is specifically designed to kill short-sellers, tricking them with a moment of panic. Now it has pulled back, but when it reached the wall at 78324, it got scared and started to retract. So next, keep a close eye on the 77379 level—this is the lifeline for the bulls. If the pullback doesn't break this level, then the earlier breakout is real, and after a breather, it will continue pushing up to 78324 sooner or later. But if 77379 doesn't hold, then the earlier breakout was just a fakeout, and the price will swing back down, likely testing around 76000 again. This shakeout has really wiped out a lot of people. Also, a sneaky spot to mention: the market is signaling that the area around 79500 is an excellent point to sniper short positions, right next to the resistance zone from 79465 to 80265. If it really reaches here, placing a half-position short on the left side has a high chance of catching a pullback. Of course, this depends on 77379 holding; if it doesn't, then this opportunity is gone. BTC volume breakout above 78310 is a right-side long entry; volume drop below 77340 with a failed rebound is a right-side short entry—set your stop losses well. BTC hourly chart breakout and hold above 78310 targets 79465-80265; if it can't get above 78310, it's useless. 4-hour chart break below 77155 targets 76128-75272. Resistance above: 78310-79465-80265 Support below: 77175-76442-75290 ETH is even trickier. Yesterday it briefly pushed above 2144, making you think it was going to fly, but then it immediately dropped back, closing with a long upper shadow shooting star candlestick, forming a double top with yesterday's high—looks ugly. This signals that someone is selling at the top. Now its fate is tied to that ascending channel. If the channel holds, and it breaks above the double top, 2195 is beckoning. But if the lower edge of the channel breaks, it will likely return to where it rose from, with 2102 and 2076 waiting below. So while it's inside the channel, you can try some quick scalping with high sells and low buys, but be quick. For example, if it holds around 2101, try a short-term long; if wrong, exit at 2076. If it dares to spike near 2156, you can also enter a long, but if it breaks 2124, accept the loss. The safest is to wait for it to choose a direction: hold above 2146 to go long, break below 2126 to go short, so you don't guess blindly. Alright, that's all for the market update. The key levels are on the table, follow the plan, don't get emotional. Place your orders and enjoy your meal. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The South Korean stock market is rising a bit irrationally today. Samsung Electronics reached a preliminary agreement with the union, but the union members haven't voted yet, and the KOSPI surged 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. There's quite a bit of speculation in that 5%— #三星罢工急刹车：韩股飙涨触发熔断 The market is betting real money on an agreement whose full text hasn't even been disclosed yet passing the vote. If the agreement is ultimately implemented, it could be worth an 8% to 10% recovery potential. The current 5% surge basically prices in a 60-70% chance of approval. The problem is the stance of the hardliners in the union is completely unclear, so this probability estimate is basically a guess. If the vote is rejected, giving back the entire 5% is just the starting point. Adding the new wave of confrontation emotions from an angered union, a 5% to 7% drop or even triggering a downward circuit breaker wouldn't be surprising. Those chasing the rally today face a completely unbalanced risk-reward. What's even worse is that even if this agreement barely passes, it doesn't mean the labor-capital conflict is resolved. The leaked information focuses on mutual concessions on annual wage increases, but the real issues for the Samsung union lie in the working hours system and performance-based pay structure—the protection of overtime pay for senior engineers, and the inhumane forced overtime on the tightly staffed semiconductor production lines. These are the core disagreements. If the agreement only provides a temporary fix on money without addressing structural problems, it's like temporarily covering the volcano's crater. The radicals in the union who feel bought off by small gains could very well come back after the vote, and the next strike will be even harsher, possibly involving other major factory unions joining the street protests. This is not a delay but a risk shift. SK Hynix rose 3.8% today following the trend, which fully exposes how the market is pricing Korean semiconductors—not based on individual stock fundamentals but treating the Samsung strike as a systemic risk switch for the entire supply chain. The logic itself isn't wrong; globally, HBM is basically monopolized by Samsung and Hynix. If one has issues, AI chip giants like Nvidia face supply cuts, customer confidence collapses, and the entire Korean chip sector's valuation must be discounted. The strike pause leads to Hynix's recovery. But Hynix itself isn't striking and can't even keep up with HBM orders, so short-term it should be a positive, yet its stock price moves up and down with Samsung. This shows a large amount of capital isn't calculating changes in competitive dynamics but just treating "Korean chips" as a bundled asset label for trading. Short covering and index fund rebalancing support a significant portion of this 3.8% phantom value. If the union vote fails later, Hynix will retreat just as hard—the downside of bundled pricing is bundled sell-offs. Before the ballot box opens, today's market is all revocable bets. It looks lively but is fundamentally fragile. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Nvidia's earnings report exploded, but the stock price shrank. Now the whole internet is split into two camps arguing: #英伟达完美财报：市场为何不买账 One side thinks this is a textbook case of a “jerk market” — buy on rumors, sell on the news. Expectations were too high before, and now that the numbers are actually out, the stock is getting slammed as a salute. When GB200 goes into mass production and shipping, what’s meant to come back will come back. To them, this kind of drop is basically free money. The other side thinks the problem is bigger. They’re not betting on this quarter’s numbers, but on how long the cloud giants’ capital expenditures will keep going crazy. Once someone starts cutting orders, or if the AI monetization story falls apart, what gets killed isn’t just sentiment but the entire valuation logic — then the PE ratio will just revert to where it came from. What concerns me more is another question: what exactly is Nvidia as a company? Calling it an AI infrastructure giant enjoying a high premium is fair. But look at its revenue structure: Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon almost entirely cover its data center business. This concentration of procurement makes it essentially a high-end manufacturing business. The market is now schizophrenic — when moods are good, it gives Nvidia a dream valuation; when moods are bad, it measures it with a cyclical stock yardstick. This tug-of-war isn’t over, so the stock price can’t settle down. As for new stories, Jensen Huang is indeed still trying to paint a big picture. Physical AI, robotics, autonomous agents — every launch event feels like a sci-fi movie. But the market is clearly a bit tired — not disbelief, but saturation; the threshold has risen. Blackwell was supposed to be the star of the new story, but early expectations were already priced in. Now it’s entering a tough delivery ramp-up phase, which is the most grueling part. I actually think what Nvidia lacks now isn’t its own tech iteration, but an external event beyond its control: for example, a sudden breakout AI application that makes everyone feel “I still didn’t buy enough GPUs,” pushing end-user demand to force cloud providers to keep increasing orders. This kind of thing can’t be triggered just by releasing a new card. So until that turning point comes, the stock price will probably stay like this: a tug-of-war between faith in computing power and valuation repricing. On one hand, silently chanting “computing power is the new oil,” on the other, patiently enduring this painful repricing phase. The market’s current deadlock is itself an attitude. $BTC $TAO $FET

SpaceX has filed its prospectus, here are a few points I noticed, not necessarily accurate. #SpaceX files prospectus: first disclosure of BTC holdings Honestly, with a valuation of 2 trillion, paired with 18.7 billion in revenue and an operating loss of 2.6 billion, my first reaction was—what kind of story do they have to tell to justify this? Then I thought, the market isn’t really buying the current SpaceX, it’s buying the SpaceX "after Starlink becomes the interstellar internet." Starlink is currently the only profitable segment; the rest are all burning cash. The question is, in the valuation models, what proportion of the price is assigned to the business reality, and what proportion is assigned to Musk as a person? These two things are mixed together, so how do you separate the risk premium? Once the persona has issues, the business part collapses too; this has happened before. Then there’s the 18,000 BTC. The prospectus just lists a single number, but I think this might be the most valuable line in the entire document. Because it’s disclosed before going public, it has legal effect, completely different from institutions just claiming "we bought this much." More importantly, Musk has already left, so what happens to these coins afterward? Sell them? Distribute to shareholders? Or keep them as strategic reserves? Does the prospectus clearly state any "founder runaway clauses"—for example, who controls these digital assets after he leaves? I flipped through several pages but didn’t find a clear answer; if any lawyer friends want to discuss this, please do. Finally, about this "AI IPO Super Week." SpaceX and OpenAI filed their reports back to back; neither is very profitable, but that doesn’t stop them from becoming some of the largest tech IPOs in history. In the past, you had to prove you could make a profit to go public; now it seems you don’t—if you’re "strategic infrastructure," you deserve a high valuation. What does this paradigm shift mean for the secondary market? The primary market’s narrative pricing logic is directly poured into the public market; ordinary investors use old tools like PE and PB to measure, and all they measure is a bubble. But if you say it’s a bubble, you might really miss out. That’s the hardest part. All three things are actually about one thing: the old framework for evaluating companies is no longer sufficient, the new one hasn’t been built yet, and we’re stuck in the middle. Quite surreal. $SPACEX $OPENAI $BTC