巴克莱：预测市场正威胁其他投机性投资工具，Z世代热衷博弈式投资
Odaily星球日报讯 巴克莱分析师指出，预测市场正在威胁其他投机性投资工具，而且已是为杠杆型 ETP 的劲敌。数据显示，自 2024 年美国总统大选以来，预测平台每月名义交易量呈现持续增长，其中 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 四月名义交易量已超 240 亿美元，几乎与指数及个股的“买权超额认购策略”规模相当，而一年前该数字仅为 50 亿美元。
分析认为，预测市场热潮并非由 AI 泡沫驱动，而是源自年轻一代的病毒式传播，近三分之一的 Z 世代、与下一代的千禧一代，正投入或考虑参与预测市场与运动博弈。不过，现阶段预测市场仍难与散户旗舰产品 0DTE 抗衡，标普 0DTE 市场今年 3 月的总交易额高达 57 万亿美元。（CNBC）
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