Bitunix分析师：霍尔木兹「边谈边打」，市场开始意识到真正的不确定性从未消失
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 26 日，全球市场虽然仍持续交易「美伊可能达成协议」的乐观预期，但霍尔木兹海峡附近再度爆发军事冲突，代表目前的中东局势本质上仍处于「边谈判、边博弈、边施压」阶段。美军证实对伊朗导弹设施与布雷船只进行「自卫打击」，伊朗则指控美方违反停火协议，显示所谓和平框架距离真正稳定仍有巨大距离。
目前市场最核心的主线，在于霍尔木兹能否真正恢复正常运作。虽然多家媒体开始曝光草案内容，包括 30 天内恢复通航、放松伊朗石油出口限制、部分解冻海外资产，以及延长停火 60 天等安排，但伊朗与美国在核浓缩、制裁解除与海峡控制权上仍未完全达成一致。这也是为何市场对和平协议的态度开始出现明显疲乏，甚至出现「狼来了」式反应。
从资产表现来看，油价在快速下挫后重新反弹，美债收益率在亚盘回落后再度走高，代表资金虽然短期押注冲突降温，但对中东风险与全球通胀压力仍保持高度警戒。尤其若霍尔木兹最终无法全面恢复正常航运，能源与供应链压力将继续限制全球央行的政策空间。
更深层的问题在于，目前市场开始逐渐接受一件事——即便战争最终降温，高利率环境也未必会快速结束。近期美联储与欧洲央行官员持续偏鹰，加上市场重新定价加息预期，代表全球资金已不再像过去一样完全相信「央行一定会救市场」。
加密市场方面，BTC 近期仍维持震荡，从清算热力图来看，上方 78000 至 78200 附近仍存在大量空头流动性堆积，而下方 75500 与 74200 附近则累积明显多头清算带。这代表目前市场结构仍偏向高杠杆拉锯，资金并未真正形成单边趋势共识。
在宏观不确定性尚未解除之前，加密市场短线仍更偏向全球流动性与风险偏好的高敏感度反应器，而非独立行情。尤其当市场开始重新怀疑「政策是否还有能力完全稳定市场」后，高波动环境可能才刚刚开始。
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